Thank you for all of the kind notes this past week about how excited y’all are for this newsletter to be back. I can’t tell you how much it means to me and I’m so excited to see where this goes!
xx,
Michelle 🐝
Caviar
My feeds on Instagram and TikTok have been FILLED with pics of people eating caviar. Friends from all over - NYC, Texas, Raleigh, Cali - and especially over the holidays.
It got me thinking, where is this tasty treat in its trend cycle, and also - why is it everywhere?!
Well, it looks like my suspicions were correct. As you can see from this Google Trends chart below, every year in December caviar search interest spikes, with the biggest spike in the past five years happening this past December.
The caviar market is also growing:
The global caviar market is valued at $417M in 2024.
The caviar market is projected to grow at a CAGR (compound annual growth) of 8% from 2024-2030 (anything over 3% / the rate of GDP growth is considered good).
1 oz of Caviar costs ~$100-$500 depending on how fancy you want to get
Who is the main caviar culprit? Millennial girlies 💁🏼♀️
Now it all makes sense...Women 25-34 are the biggest group pinning caviar ideas on Pinterest. Pinterest obviously skews female so take this with a grain of salt but interesting nonetheless.
I can only imagine that people with a higher HHI (household income) is a main purchaser of caviar.
So why is caviar on the rise?
The growth of caviar is due to a variety of factors like the globalization of production, aquaculture (fish farming as sustainable sourcing methods), diversification of non-sturgeon alternatives (e.g. trout or salmon), and an expansion of distributors (e.g. you can get it at Whole Foods now, vs. having to go the Caspian sea).
Now let’s dig in to the motivations behind eating it, (read: not the motivations for eating it):
Celebration! - Clearly, caviar and Christmas go hand in hand. With the spikes in search interest and pinning during December, people are splurging for their nice holiday meals. Everyone wants to feel a little fancy—break out the china, drink some champs, and dine on a delicacy.
A little luxury - A reader in Florida described why he’s a big fan: “It’s like any of life’s great pleasures and luxuries — a fun social experience, a status symbol (for those that care), a complicated taste (like coffee, wine, foie gras) that isn’t for every palate.” Given caviar’s price point, it’s an accessible luxury that people can order to feel like they’re playing in the big leagues but not dropping major dimes. Kind of like buying Chanel lipstick vs. a Chanel purse. Also, Caviar dates back to royalty so next time you order it, you might feel a little bit like a prince/Russian czar (lol).
The cool kids club - A reader in Texas said, “Ew gross. People eat it because they want to look cool.” Well you heard it hear first folks. Caviar makes you feel cool. But what’s interesting is I think there’s a deeper motivation under the surface here. Sure people are doing it for the gram, but I wonder if this is an indulgence that helps us slow down and savor each moment? A treat that makes us feel special and in the know?
A little bit of a thrill - Taking bumps of Caviar is apparently a thing.
Trump era energy - Kara in LA shared her perspective: “Being rich is cool again. Trump era energy…kind of feels like a throwback, similar to how 80s era Wall Street is romanticized.” With people going back to work in offices (whether they like it or not), the rise of corpcore fashion, and the MAGA mood post-election, I wonder if bumps of other substances will start to rise as well…
Stardew Valley??? Ok this is a total aside but I found it funny. When I was look at Google Trends one of the top related queries was “how to make caviar Stardew” and “how to get caviar in stardew valley”. Upon further investigation, you must get a fish pond, put sturgeon in there, and then put the caviar in preserve jars. This helps you make money in the game.
Cute branding: It feels like what happened to wine bottles years ago when they started using interesting labels is now happening to caviar. There’s a huge array of fun labels which just kind of makes you just want to buy it:
Cautious consumption: I thought this part was SO interesting. Last month McKinsey published this report about the state in consumer spending:
“The current consumer landscape presents a paradox in which rising optimism coexists with restrained spending. This trend highlights a collective shift toward financial prudence, reflecting a broader desire for economic security amid lingering uncertainties, though it could also reflect a shift among consumers toward more mindful consumption patterns.”
As you can see from the charts below, despite consumer optimism being the highest it’s been since March 2020, splurging is becoming subdued. Perhaps this is a reflection of the uncertainty people have going into this year with the new government and major shift in policies that will take place. And instead of YOLOing it, consumers are becoming more cautious and buying smaller luxuries vs splurging on bigger purchases like a nicer car, fancier vacation, or house upgrade.
What’s in it for you, marketer?
Given economic growth is looking like it will slow down in 2025, with GDP decreasing from 2.6% in 2024 to 1.6% in 2025 (3% growth each year is average), caviar might be taking on a similar vibe to the lipstick index. 💄
This is an unproven but interesting theory that “the sales of lipstick and the growth of the economy were inversely related – that as the economy worsened, lipstick sales improved.
This phenomenon is a theoretical financial indicator used to forecast bear markets and recessions. The theory goes that in a gloomy economy consumers will curb discretionary spending but continue to buy lipstick, perfume and other small, affordable luxury goods. If sales of lipstick are growing, investors can, according to the theory, expect an economic downturn.”
My prediction is that we’re in the mid stages of this trend and it will keep growing especially over the next year, seeing an even larger holiday spike in December.
➡️ If I was a marketer for a Caviar brand: Expand into other luxury arenas: Collab with Aspen’s Cloud Nine club, partner with Formula 1, do a spoof with influencer Gstaad Guy. Also, create new celebratory moments outside of just the holidays.
➡️ If I was a marketer for a potato chip brand (a popular pairing with caviar): The holidays are your new cultural moment. I’d come out with a version of “fancy chips” a la Goldfish’s recent chilean sea bass “rebrand”.
➡️ If I was a marketer for a luxury brand: Text “little luxury” social posts anchored around treating yourself during uncertainty and highlighting your lower priced items. See how they do and develop larger campaigns around top performers.
➡️ If I was a marketer for something completely unrelated: Consider the cultural mood that is setting in and how people will likely be more cautious with their spending. Can your brand be an antidote to stress (e.g. Headspace, Spotify), a consistent “friend” (e.g. Duolingo, Strava), a way to treat yourself (e.g. any ice cream or sweets brand), or an outlet for creativity (e.g. Pinterest, Skillshare)?
Dinner Party Fodder
🧠 Activation of the week - Apple TV’s marketing team did an amazing job with their OOH stunts to drive buzz and excitement before the drop of Severance Season 2. I wrote more about it here.
😂 Trend of the week - Your outie is embarrassing.
🔥 Hot take of the week - Emily Heyward from Red Antler spoke with FastCo about her predictions on the biggest branding trends for 2025: “The brands that succeed next year will resist the urge to ride every bandwagon. They’ll move away from the chaos of trend-chasing, and instead focus on creating thoughtful, intentional interactions that make sense for them and them alone. By leaning into restraint, building intrigue through scarcity, and letting expertise speak for itself, brands will cut through the clutter.” TBH this is pretty refreshing of a take. I think we might have hit peak trends in some regards. And in other ways I don’t think they’ll ever go away. What do y’all think?
🫘 Recipe of the week - Texas Caviar aka not real caviar, but it’s DELISH. It comes from Neiman Marcus’ famed chef, Helen Corbitt.
▶️ Video of the week - Caviar university by none other than Bethenny Frankel. 😂 What makes her an expert? I have no idea but she is INTO it.
💯 Follow of the week - The Michael Jordan of babysitting, aka @chelsea_explains. She has hacks for getting your kids to do anything. If you work for Dollar Store, Michael, or a Parenting brand, she should 1000% be your next influencer. I wrote more about her here.
🌸 Magazine of the week - I just love magazines. Whoever said they were dead should look in my mailbox. Flower Magazine’s quarterly issue is here! This is me in magazine form.
📖 Book of the week - I just got Power Pause and cannot WAIT to read it. This is written by Neha Ruch who started the Mother Untitled movement.
🤓 Data point of the week - Speaking of moms, this study shows a mom’s salary should be $140k a year for all the work they do…
❓Question of the week - What day do you want me to send The Pollinatr?!
See you in the chat. 💥
I hope everyone has a wonderful week!
Michelle
Loved how deep you went! So incredible & agree magazines are life
Enjoyed this take and agree with many of the motivations listed behind the rise! A little behind the scenes history... The largest US caviar farm had an exclusive contract with a single, institutional caviar brand for many years. 10-15 years ago, that contract expired allowing everyone and their mother (including us, transparently!) access to their supply. Like with any product (and in seafood especially) there is a wide range of quality, standards, and transparency amongst the caviar brands you'll find today. We're obviously nerds about this and could go on lol